The truth about imports and emissions

Back in April and May there were a lot of headlines about how the UK isn’t really reducing emissions at all – we’re just transferring emissions to the developing world by importing energy-intensive manufactured goods.  A report by a respected institution, the National Academy of Sciences of the USA, has been cited as solid evidence.  It is solid – but people are drawing the wrong conclusions.

The data does indeed show that when we look at consumption rather than production, emissions in the developed world have indeed grown rather than fallen – by 0.3% per year on average.  Moreover, the fact that global emissions continue to increase is undeniable.  However, we are not simply transferring our emissions to the developing world.  The authors state this – the emissions intensity of trade is actually falling, even as trade grows.   Since 1990, international trade has grown at more than twice the rate of the emissions embodied in that trade. The problem is that we continue to consume more, and we have failed to reduce the emissions of our consumption enough to compensate for our increased appetites.

The real question is this – what should we do about it?  There is a danger that, based on the headlines, policy-makers will conclude that reducing energy-intensive imports is the way forward.  In short, protectionism will become fashionable again.

Of course, as most mainstream economists will tell you, protectionism tends to lead to slower growth – good for emissions, but bad for jobs and wealth.  Fortunately, The Economist, a respected international news and opinion journal, throws cold water on the idea that tariffs could help.  It argues instead that green investment in the developing world is the way forward.

However, all commentators appear to neglect the point that stares at us out of the data – the big emissions opportunities that we in the developed world can tackle are from production destined for domestic consumption.  While it is very difficult to regulate emissions in other countries (tariffs are a very blunt and potentially divisive instrument), it is perfectly possible for countries to regulate the emissions from their own production, most of which is destined for internal markets.  Since this is the largest figure, and the one most conducive to management, it makes sense to focus attention here.

Of course, there is still a strong argument for measuring national emissions based on consumption, not production.  This gives us a more realistic picture of the environmental impacts of our national lifestyles.  Nevertheless, when it comes to making reductions, we should be looking at the big wins that come from production to meet our own needs – this is where we will have the biggest positive impact.